Times of Plenty

How many people are there in the world that can buy a jet?  Good news … not enough.

Prices will continue to fall for the foreseeable future for the simple reason that building wealth (and convincing partners) takes time.  Compounding this is the fact that manufacturers need to make new stuff.  Problem: There are lots of great late model deals to be had.  Be it a Hawker, Lear 60 or Astra SPX (now Gulfstream G100 or 150)…. there’s good news on the buying side.

In fact, much of it isn’t even that old.  Pre 2008 there was no limit to the orders and slot swapping that pervaded the good times.  We don’t live in those times.  As a seasoned guide in northern Namibia once said, looking out over a slow drying pan of water, “The times of plenty are over.”  While he may have been forecasting the next months as a wildebeest, he might as well have been talking Hawkers.

Airplanes are funny in that industry specialists will offer seemingly rational and commoditized things like “Aircraft Bluebook” and other tools that make it seem like you are buying a car.

Let’s state the obvious, it is not a car, and the price comes down to finding the right opportunity to pounce.  Aircraft owners are equally irrational when it is time to sell as when they wandered into the transaction in the first place.  A 50% haircut is not uncommon to a distressed seller, from asking price to what it goes out the door for.

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Aviation, technology, trends, society and the economic drivers that make it all happen is what makes me tick.

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